State could lose big under the new Trump budget
Editor’s Note, July 4: This is an updated version of a story published earlier this week.
News analysis | With congressional Republicans celebrating this week’s final passage of President Donald Trump’s 940-page budget megabill, nonpartisan analysts tell Statehouse Report that South Carolinians should expect to see major economic impacts as its provisions begin to take effect.
Those impacts, they say, will likely include lower income taxes, higher health-care and electric bills, fewer rural hospitals and nursing homes, and a slowdown in the state’s fast-growing electric vehicle (EV) and battery industry as federal subsidies disappear.
But perhaps the biggest long term impact, economists note, will arise from the bill’s bottom-line budget math — roughly $5 trillion in new and extended tax cuts, $1.5 trillion in spending reductions, and $3.5 trillion in new debt. They say all of that spending could ultimately lead to higher consumer interest rates on items like home mortgages, car loans and credit card purchases.
According to supporters, including S.C.’s senior U.S. senator, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, the tradeoffs in the bill will strengthen the country.
“We did it,” Graham said in a July 3 social media post as the bill headed to Trump’s desk for signature. “The One Big Beautiful Bill will soon be law and Americans will be far safer and more prosperous because of it.”
But Democratic opponents like S.C. 6th District Rep. James Clyburn say the bill is a giveaway to wealthy Americans at the expense of the poor and middle class.
“Trump said people “aren’t going to feel any” of the massive cuts to health care in his big ugly bill,” Clyburn said in an X post as the final vote approached. “Tell that to the 17 million people who are about to lose their health coverage, Donald.”
From the start, Trump has argued the bill will unleash the American economy and cut the deficit. But economists, energy experts and social service providers say the big picture is complicated — and that understanding exactly what the average South Carolina resident will be giving up in exchange for a modest tax cut is key to judging the bill’s overall merit.
Higher electric bills, fewer high-paying EV jobs
In response to a direct request from Trump, congressional Republicans added several last-minute items to the megabill targeting renewable energy production, including the elimination of several Biden-era renewable energy subsidies and a new tax on most solar and wind equipment.
Charleston’s Eddy Moore of the Alliance for Clean Energy said the bill would do real damage to the state’s economic and energy prospects in a July 1 interview.
“Around the country and in South Carolina specifically, we’ll see higher electric bills and a lot of job losses,” Moore said, noting that renewables are the state’s fastest-growing power source. “But the even bigger damage is the attempt to rewind history and go backward while the rest of the world keeps moving forward on energy policy.”
Most concerning, he said, is the rollback of federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credits and battery investments, which new S.C. factories and plants are relying on .
“This bill is threatening literally the largest economic development projects in our state’s history,” Moore said. “It’s almost certain we’ll lose some of these companies.”
Fewer rural hospitals and nursing homes — and fewer insured
While much of the coverage about health care cuts in the bill has focused on its strict new work requirements for Medicaid, the less-discussed provision eliminating the Medicaid provider tax, which S.C. uses to unlock billions in federal funding, is seen as a particular danger to Palmetto State hospitals.
In fact, according to S.C. Hospital Association President and CEO Thornton Kirby, the move could create a $2.4 billion hole in South Carolina’s Medicaid budget, which provides a major source of revenue for state hospitals.
“Many hospitals would not be able to survive the way they are without financial help,” Kirby told S.C. Public Radio on June 26. “If you take $2.4 billion out of the state’s hospital community, you’re going to see layoffs, you’re going to see service reductions, and [in] the worst case scenario, closures.”
Further stress on S.C. hospitals and nursing homes will likely come from the bill’s broader Medicaid and health-care cuts, which could force emergency rooms to provide uncompensated care to about 230,000 residents who stand to lose their insurance coverage.
“These cuts would threaten providers across the state, for whom Medicaid dollars basically pay the rent,” Columbia-based policy analyst John Ruoff told Statehouse Report earlier this year. “And that would seriously raise costs for everyone else because those provider costs would have to be shifted onto the rest of us.”
Less food assistance, ‘more hungry people’
Another major source of cost savings in the GOP plan comes from cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, which provides food aid to more than 40 million Americans. The savings mostly result from additional work requirements and shifting some costs onto state governments.
About 145,000 South Carolinians will lose some or all food assistance under the bill, according to S.C. Appleseed Legal Justice Center, which works on behalf of poor and working class families throughout the state.
“With the increased work requirements and all the new paperwork, SNAP is going to be more costly for the state to administer, with fewer people being fed,” said Appleseed Director of Policy Sue Berkowitz in a July 1 interview.
Further, she warned, private philanthropy is unlikely to be able to close the food gap, with SNAP currently providing nine meals for every one distributed by Palmetto State food banks, churches and other nonprofits.
“As we lose all of that, we’re going to see more hungry people, and health care outcomes for the people of our state going down,” she said. “It’s not making South Carolinians better, it’s making South Carolinians poorer.”
President Trump is expected to sign the bill into law at a July 4 White House signing ceremony.
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(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
