UFC 317: Pantoja Vs. Kara-France Betting Analysis & Prediction

The other title fight on the UFC 317 main card is this co-main event bout for the UFC flyweight championship. Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his belt against Kai Kara-France. Pantoja is quietly turning into one of the most dominant champions in the UFCand Kara-France is getting his first shot at undisputed UFC gold.

Let’s take a closer look at how these two match up against each other, both technically and from a betting odds point of view.

Tale Of The Tape

How The Two Flyweights Measure In

These are two veterans of mixed martial arts who have been competing at the highest level for a long time. Pantoja is looking as impressive as ever, even at 35 years old, as Kara-France is finally getting his shot at undisputed gold at age 32, three years removed from losing to Brandon Moreno for the interim belt.

Pantoja and Kara-France are evenly matched physically, with a slight reach advantage going to Kara-France. Pantoja’s fighting style clashes with Kara-France a bit, and that will be the real story of how this fight will go down on Saturday night.

With that being said, at 35, we never know when the decline will start for Pantoja. It has historically been very difficult to stay at the top of the sport as a fighter enters the second half of their thirties, especially in the lower weight divisions.

Alexandre Pantoja

What Does The Champion Need To Do To Keep His Belt?

• Dictate where the fight goes
• Land takedowns early
• Don’t change his style to appease the crowd, or Kara-France

This is not saying Pantoja is a boring fighter in any way, but there is a chance this title defense on Saturday night seems boring to fight fans. Kara-France is primarily a striker who wants to keep this fight on the feet. It’s the only way he can beat Pantoja. So Pantoja would be smart to take this fight to the ground where he excels.

Pantoja never puts on boring performances, even when he wrestles and grapples on the ground, he is always transitioning and passing guards while dealing damage and searching for a submission. There has been a trend of crowds in arenas recently that boo fighters every time they aren’t engaging in something violent. Kara-France will also try to trick Pantoja into getting into a brawl with him.

The easiest and quickest way to a victory is closing the distance early and making Kara-France feel the pressure and wear him down. When their bodies are still pretty dry in the first round, Pantoja will be very dangerous on the ground. The later the fight goes, the easier it will be for Kara-France to defend takedowns and keep the fight standing.

Pantoja is the better all-around mixed martial artist of the two. He is so good in every area the fight takes him, and the only thing he needs to worry about is dictating where it goes. If he lets Kara-France start jabbing and going first in the striking exchanges, or backing up against the fence, that’s where Kara-France’s quick hands and power become prevalent.

Kai Kara-France

What Can He Do To Steal The Belt?

• Pressure Pantoja up against the fence
• Control the pace of the fight with low kicks and jabs
• Leave it all in the cage

Kara-France is an exciting fighter out of New Zealand coming off a huge win over Steve Erceg at UFC 305 last year. He showed he could bounce back from losses and compete at the highest level, which earns him a title shot against a guy who has cleared out the rest of the division.

As the years go by, Kara-France continues to improve his biggest weakness: wrestling. He is a striker and needs to keep the fight standing to implement his best skills. With that being said, he surely has gotten better at defending takedowns and scrambling out of bad positions. He needs to be very sharp and switched on this weekend to have a chance of knocking off a dominant champion.

Even more than technical ability, the way he shows up mentally on Saturday night is important. Kara-France needs to understand this chance doesn’t come more than once for most people and he needs to be willing to give everything in the cage to beat someone as great as Pantoja.

From a technical standpoint, the pressure and jab of Kara-France is key. He needs to take control of the center of the octagon, and be first in the striking exchanges. If he lets Pantoja back him up to the fence and settle by looking for counters and waiting to defend takedowns, he will have a hard time getting any momentum on Saturday night.

Betting Prediction

Who To Bet On In This Co-Main Event

Skill-for-skill, Pantoja is clearly the better fighter. That is why DraftKings has Pantoja as a sizable betting favorite this week. He is an elite grappler with great hands and the uncanny ability to win fights. The official prediction for this co-main event is that Pantoja will simply be too much for Kara-France for 25 minutes and will make his fourth title defense to become arguably the best flyweight since Demetrious Johnson.

The -245 moneyline isn’t very valuable and might not be worth a bet this weekend, so let’s find an alternative for this fight. DraftKings has this fight going the distance at -105, and the over 4.5 round total is at -120. These are two very solid bets, even though they aren’t as fun. Pantoja has gone the distance in three of his four world title fights, and Kara-France is a very tough individual.

An interesting prop bet to take a look at is Pantoja winning by submission at +200, or by unanimous decision at +240. That is some serious value in the two most likely outcomes of this fight.