´Tis the season for fictitious weather models; here’s what you must know

It’s the season where the tropical chatter ramps up, especially when a model run shows a rogue tropical system developing into a hurricane, or in some cases, two major hurricanes right next to each other or over our state. But each of us, regardless of whether you are a meteorologist or not, should know about several factors that might not be all there in this big tropical recipe.

First, models are just that- models. They should be taken as guidance. Long-range models usually have a more significant margin of error. The longer the forecast is, the more errors it will have. Second, numerical weather models are run several times a day. The GFS, more commonly known as the American Model, is updated 4 times daily at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z (Coordinated Universal Time). Each of these runs can have different outcomes, usually depending on the ingested data (this is one of the reasons for having good current data, like the launch of weather balloons and local observations). So, a system that a model runs might disappear in the next run. Remember that models also take in historical data. The more data they have, the better.

But sometimes, if it lacks certain data, other data takes over. Therefore, a run might be based more on historical trends than current data, which may not yield a good run or output. This might be what we are seeing at times. This is especially true in certain weather models at the beginning of the season. For example, the Canadian Model often shows a catastrophic hurricane in the Gulf during May or early June. Although this is not impossible, we meteorologists know that the odds of this happening are often very low because the atmosphere cannot sustain such a system so early in the season, due to water temperatures, the jet stream placement, etc., but this comes with experience.

2025 Hurricane season

There is no correlation between a slow start to a hurricane season and the number of storms that will occur at the end. As of August 8, there have been four named systems in the Atlantic Basin. All of them have been tropical storms, and one, Chantal, has made landfall in the U.S.

August 7 National Hurricane Season forecast update

We are slightly ahead of the season. August 3 is the average date for the third named system. On average, the first hurricane forms by September 1. The two most reliable seasonal forecasts continue to call for above-average activity. There are neutral El Niño conditions forecast, but the sea surface temperatures continue to be above average. Remember, the warm waters serve as fuel for these tropical systems to gain strength. The wind shear is also forecast to be slower than average. The lack of wind shear, the change in wind direction with height, allows the storm to continue its structure and grow cycles.

You don’t have to wait until the season starts to prepare for it. To be ready, you can review many things in your home and family plan. In fact, if there are simple projects you can work on now to secure your property, you should do them now to beat the rush and save some money, too. An emergency plan should always be prepared in everyone’s home; you can also have that ready.