Turkey, pumpkin pie, and NFL football. Thanksgiving Day is here and a three-pack of games kick off NFL Week 12 action. Like many Americans, one of your favorite holiday traditions may be betting on the games. In the spirit of giving, we’ve put in the work, did the research, and now offer up our Turkey Day picks.

Let’s take a look at our Thanksgiving NFL best bets, picks, and ATS predictions.

Thanksgiving NFL Best Bets, Picks, ATS Predictions

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

Detroit has somehow earned a reputation as a tough home team, especially on Thanksgiving, but there really isn’t anything factual behind such a claim. The Lions have actually only covered one of their last 13 Thursday games as underdogs, three of their last 17 Week 12 games, and five of their last 18 November games. The Lions have lost four straight on Thanksgiving, as well as 13 of their last 17 on the holiday, and have also not covered this spread as a Thanksgiving dog in over 15 seasons. With a first-time head coach on a short prep week and an uncertain quarterbacking situation, it seems a lot to ask Detroit to turn things around by this afternoon.

Chicago already handled Detroit once this season, earning a 24-14 victory back in Week 4. While Justin Fields will likely miss this one, Chicago still boasts the league’s sixth best rushing attack, which will face off against the NFL’s second worst rush defense here. The Bears’ lead back, David Montgomery, punished Detroit in the first meeting with 106 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, part of 188 total rushing yards Chicago amassed that day.

Chicago has covered four of its last five against sub .500 opposition, as well as four of its last five on the road against teams with losing home records. They have also only dropped eight of their last 36 road games ATS when facing teams that average less than 6.0 passing yards per attempt. Remember, we could likely see Tim Boyle, who only mustered 77 yards through the air against Cleveland in his first start last weekend. Chicago possesses the league’s 11th ranked pass defense and would present similar difficulties for the Lions’ backup.

Bears vs. Lions Prediction

Look for the Bears to move to 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Detroit with a Thanksgiving victory.

Our ATS Pick: Chicago Bears -3

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas slipped up on the road at Kansas City last weekend, but they now return home where they are 4-1 SU and ATS this season, with all four of those victories coming by double-digits. In fact, Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games dating back to last season, winning all six by more than this spread.

This game is of extra importance to Dallas, currently the worst of the four division leaders in the NFC, as the Cowboys head on the road for three straight games after this one. Thankfully, they have performed well as favorites, covering five of their last six overall and four of their last five at home. Dallas has also responded well after a poor outing in recent tries. America’s Team has covered four straight after a SU loss and four of its last five after an ATS defeat.

Las Vegas may have fully descended into collapse mode. The Raiders stayed relevant for a short while following Jon Gruden’s departure, but have lost three straight games out of their bye week and are now at least a half game behind 10 other teams in the AFC. It’s hard to imagine a guy who has never been a head coach before having a strong plan for three days of prep plus travel here.

If this team has truly quit, we could see a continuation of some already ugly trends in this one. The Raiders are just 3-7 ATS after their last 10 SU losses and 1-4 ATS after their last five ATS defeats. When a SU loss has come by 15 points or more, the Raiders have only covered two of their last eight follow-up efforts. TheRaiders have also covered just two of its last 11 games after allowing 31 or more points prior and are just 1-5 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 or fewer.

Raiders vs. Cowboys Prediction

Look for the Raiders to slip to 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games as Dallas runs away with this one, much like Kansas City did with Vegas two weeks ago.

Our ATS Pick: Dallas -7 

Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints

It makes for an easy argument to get behind the Bills here, if you say that they were Super Bowl favorites at this time last week and now need the game to ensure New England does not open a 1.5 game lead in the division ahead of Buffalo and New England meeting on Monday night in Week 13. However, we see more reason to back the Saints here with a generous helping of points at home.

Be sure to check out a look at the best NFL Thanksgiving player prop picks.

For starters, Buffalo is not playing good football of late. Throw out a couple division wins as 15 and 13.5 point favorites and the Bills have not won a tough game since early October at the Chiefs. Their wins have mostly come against very poor rushing teams, whereas New Orleans is seventh in the league in rushing yards per game at home.

Last week’s 40-29 loss at Philadelphia was the Saints’ first by more than three points as a dog since Week 2 of the 2019 season. They are actually 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs, including an 8-2 ATS run in their last 10 as home pups. They have backed up four of their last five SU losses with a cover in their next outing and have covered six straight following an ATS defeat.

Sean Payton is 16-10 ATS with the Saints after allowing 35 or more points prior, including a 5-1 ATS run in the team’s last six after allowing 31 or more. New Orleans has also rattled off five ATS victories in its last seven Thursday games.

Meanwhile, Buffalo is just 5-11 SU and 5-10-1 ATS all-time versus the NFC South, including 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS when the Bills enter play off an ATS defeat. The Bills are just 3-5 ATS since 1990 on Thursday nights, including 0-4 ATS after playing a non-division opponent.

Bills vs. Saints Prediction

Look for New Orleans to collect its sixth straight cover in this head-to-head and Sean McDermott to slide to 3-5 ATS with Buffalo after the team allows 35 or more prior.

Our ATS Pick: New Orleans +7

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(this story/news/article has not been edited by PostX News staff and is published from a syndicated feed)



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