NEW MEXICO (KRQE) – Latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed New Mexico, from July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024, experienced one of the largest population growths in the past four years.
During that time period, the state gained 9,092 people, marking the second year in a row the state has seen its population increase. The reason behind that growth can be attributed to one main factor, which KRQE News 13 discussed with Robert Rhatigan, the director of UNM’s Geospatial and Population Studies Center and the New Mexico State Demographer.
During the interview, Rhatigan also discussed a prediction that New Mexico could have a new second-largest city by the year 2030. Below, you will find a series of questions and answers from KRQE’s conversation with Rhatigan about population changes in the Land of Enchantment.
**Editor’s note: Some of KRQE’s questions and Rhatigan’s responses below have been shortened for clarity purposes.
Q: What does your job entail, what data do you study and why?
Rhatigan: “So, our department, Geospatial and Population Studies, serves as the New Mexico State Demographer’s Office. And so, we are the state liaison to the U.S. Census Bureau. And so, we’re doing things like ensuring that the population statistics that the Census Bureau puts out every year, we’re making sure that those are as accurate as possible.”
Rhatigan: “We’re also producing our own independent estimates, which is important because how can we validate what the Census Bureau is doing unless we arrive at our own numbers independently?”
Q: For this interview, we’re focusing on the U.S. Census vintage data set from 2024. Could you explain what that is?
Rhatigan: “So, the vintage is really nothing more than, it’s sort of labeling that year’s estimate. So, the vintage 2024 estimates are, you know, the latest release that came out. And the key thing to keep in mind with the vintage is that they can change the population numbers from previous years.”
Note: The estimated population numbers from previous years can be revised based on new information the census receives, according to Rhatigan, who advised to look at the most recent vintage possible for the most accurate data.
Q: Do you have any key takeaways from the vintage 2024, or see anything that stands out to you?
Rhatigan: “The key thing that stands out is two years of population growth. So, we haven’t really seen that for over a decade. There has been some trivial growth from one year to the next, followed by maybe a year of trivial decline. But these 2024 estimates mark the first two years of non-trivial growth in over a decade. So that’s good news to many.”
Q: Why did New Mexico’s population see such a growth in 2023 and now in 2024?
Rhatigan: “So, New Mexico’s growth last year, and really for the last decade, is entirely attributed to international migration. So, New Mexico now sees more deaths than births each year. So, in other words, we’re in negative natural change, and that’s not going to reverse anytime soon.”
Rhatigan: “So, in order for New Mexico to grow, we must attract migrants. But, more people move out of New Mexico into other states than vice versa. In other words, New Mexico’s net domestic migration is negative. And that’s been true every year since 2012.”
Rhatigan: “And really, if New Mexico is going to continue growing in the coming years, it will be because of continued international migration, which is very dependent on federal policy.”
Q: Does New Mexico’s proximity to the U.S.-Mexico border have a role in the state’s population change?
Rhatigan: “So, our proximity to the border is a factor, but it’s not a very big one.”
Rhatigan: “New Mexico doesn’t really attract that many of these migrants, some of which may be undocumented. Sure, they may pass through into New Mexico, but that’s not where they’re ultimately staying.”
Rhatigan: “So, the international migrants that we do have, a large component of those are very educated, the very educated workforce that comes to work at some of the national laboratories.”
Q: Based on the 2024 vintage, it showed that in 2020 through 2022, New Mexico saw its population decrease. Why?
What the Census data shows: From mid-2020 to mid-2022, New Mexico saw its population decrease by a combined total of 4,738.
Rhatigan: “So, like I said, our natural change is negative. More people are dying each year than are being born. This is because fertility rates are down and our population is aging. So, that just means more people are going to die each year. So, in the absence of migration, New Mexico’s population is going to decline every year. And again, that’s not going to change anytime soon.”
Rhatigan: “So, it comes down to, were more people moving into New Mexico than out of New Mexico? And in those years, 2020 to 2022, there was not enough international migration to offset the natural change, and to offset the domestic movers — the folks who moved out of New Mexico into other states.”
Q: Albuquerque has been slowly losing residents since 2020. Why?
What the Census data shows: Albuquerque is the most populous city in the state with a population size of 560,326, per the latest Census report. The city has slowly been losing people since 2020 and saw a -0.14% decrease between mid-2023 and mid-2024.
Rhatigan: “So, Bernalillo County, like the rest of the state, has negative natural change — more people dying each year than being born — so, the migration just hasn’t been sufficient in those years to offset that natural change.”
Q: Do you think that Rio Rancho could surpass Las Cruces in population?
What the Census data shows: Las Cruces, which is the second-largest city in the state, has a population of 116,998. Data shows the city has been growing each year since 2020. Between 2023 and 2024, the city saw a population increase of 1.31%.
Rio Rancho, the state’s third-largest city, has a population of 112,524 and has also grown since 2020. Between 2023 and 2024, the city saw a population increase of 1.69%.
Rhatigan: “Yes, it is very possible that Rio Rancho will surpass Las Cruces. So, both are growing cities. Both are building a decent amount of new housing every year, at least compared to the rest of the state, and both are attracting migrants. So, if current trends continue, then Rio Rancho will surpass Las Cruces right around 2030 when we take the next Census.”
Q: Is there anything else from the 2024 vintage that stands out to you, or about New Mexico’s population change?
Rhatigan: “I think a key thing to be aware of is that while New Mexico’s population is relatively flat, we did have growth of, you know, 9,000 people, that’s less than a half percent of the state. But, if we look at, say, a four or five-year trend, the growth is pretty flat, but it’s not uniform across the state.
Rhatigan: “So, our small rural counties are rapidly declining in population. They’re an aging population, they’re not having a lot of babies, and there’s not a lot of people moving to those counties—I’m talking about places like Katrin County, Mora County, Sierra County.”
Rhatigan: “And so, those declines are being offset by the small amount of growth that’s happening in places like Sandoval County, Doña Ana County, to a lesser extent, Santa Fe County.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
