HIGHER RAIN CHANCES: With rising moisture levels we expect an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms across Alabama through the week. Rain chances today are in the 30-40% range, with the better chances east of Interstate 65. Tomorrow, rain chances increase to around 70%, and the rest of the week, they will be in the 50-60% range. Of course, most showers and storms will occur in the afternoon and evening hours, but rain will be possible at anytime. With the clouds and higher rain chances, temperatures will remain below average for mid-August with highs in the mid to upper 80s today, followed by low to mid 80s through Thursday, before low 90s return to the end the week.
BIRMINGHAM ALMANAC: For August 11th, the average high for Birmingham is 91° and the average low is 72°. The record high is 102° set in 2007, while the record low is 58° set in 1969. We average 0.14” of precipitation on this date and the record value is 1.21” set in 2001.
WEEKEND WEATHER: Routine summer weather for Alabama and the Deep South over the weekend… partly sunny days with the usual daily rounds of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low 90s, right at seasonal averages for August.
The weather is not expected to change much through much of next week.
IN THE TROPICS: We now have newly develop Tropical Storm Erin. At 200 PM CVT, the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 28.0 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 20 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). We will keep and eye on this system as it is forecast to become a major hurricane by the end of the week.
Elsewhere, in the Central Atlantic, a weak trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic is only producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Significant development of this system is becoming unlikely over the next few days as the system drifts generally northward, remaining over the central Atlantic. Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.
Also, in the Northwestern Atlantic, a non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system is limited, this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream where some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances for further tropical development. Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.
Next names up are Fernand and Gabrielle.
BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.
WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 108.7F at Al Qaysumah, Saudi Arabia. The lowest observation was -100.5F at Vostok, Antarctica.
CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 121F at Tecopa, CA. The lowest observation was 26F at Peter Sinks, UT.
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