CIVICUS discusses prospects for democracy in Guinea with Omolara Balogun, Head of Policy Influencing and Advocacy at the West Africa Civil Society Institute (WACSI), a civil society organisation that promotes civic space and youth and women’s leadership and leverages technology for development.
On 12 May, Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah announced that general elections will be held in December, following a constitutional referendum scheduled for September. The announcement, made at the Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, aimed to reassure investors amid repeated delays in the promised transition to civilian rule following a 2021 military coup. The new constitution might allow coup leader Mamady Doumbouya to run for president, in a context where major opposition parties remain suspended or under surveillance and civil society faces severe restrictions.
Why might the constitutional referendum be important?
This referendum is an important step in the right direction, considering the situation since the September 2021 military coup . Since then, the main concern has been the delay in restoring democratic institutions, in a context marked by widespread insecurity and a high cost of living.
The military junta led by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya promised a return to democratic rule under certain conditions, including a national census to gather demographic data and a referendum to establish a new constitution and lay the groundwork for participation by opposition parties and civil society engagement.
The process leading to it, however, raises serious concerns. There’s widespread fear the referendum could be used to consolidate the junta’s power and Doumbouya, the current transitional president, might run in future elections. Such political manoeuvring would undermine the legitimacy of the entire process. However, if the referendum is carried out in a transparent, accountable and inclusive way, it could offer Guinea’s people the opportunity to shape their democratic future.
How might the new constitution affect Doumbouya’s political future?
Doumbouya has a strong personal interest in the new constitution because it will shape the electoral process. His image is highly visible across Guinea, and a state-led media campaign is promoting him as ‘the man for change’. He’s also closely linked to the Simandou 2040 initiative , a major development plan focused on Guinea’s mineral-rich region, which he’s using to build public support.
All of this suggests he may be seeking to retain power, despite the fact that the international community and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) do not view this as a legitimate route to leadership.
What restrictions do opposition parties and civil society face?
Political space is so tightly controlled that meaningful participation by the opposition is almost impossible. In late 2024, the military junta banned over 50 political parties and placed another 40 under administrative observation, claiming they failed to comply with regulations. This was a clear attempt to eliminate parties that could challenge the junta’s authority, a tactic we’ve seen in countries such as Côte d’Ivoire.
The remaining opposition is fragmented and excluded from critical national processes, with activists and political leaders such as Oumar Sylla – a human rights defender and member of the major opposition coalition, the National Front for the Defence of the Constitution – being targeted and suffering from arbitrary detention, harassment and other restrictions. The situation is further worsened by media censorship, with outlets banned from airing opposition voices.
Similarly, civil society operates under severe pressure , with its role ahead of the election extremely limited and only a few still able to speak out. The referendum process has largely excluded independent civil society groups, with only junta-aligned organisations allowed to engage. While people in civil society who supported the military takeover now hold government positions, those who oppose the junta face constant threats and restrictions.
Limited funding and security risks have further weakened civil society’s ability to mobilise, educate the public and advocate for fair democratic participation. Women and youth groups report being sidelined, and many other organisations are silent out of fear.
Despite this, some parts of civil society that have not aligned with military junta remain active and are pushing for open civic space, supported by regional organisations such as WACSI, through convenings, resilience building and regional solidarity.
Will an election lead to restoration of civilian rule?
December is still a long way away. The constitutional referendum will be a pivotal moment, as it will determine whether Guinea recommits to democratic governance or simply rebrands military rule in civilian form.
ECOWAS’s role is becoming increasingly complex, as it’s trying to prevent Guinea from aligning with the Alliance of Sahel States formed by Burkina Faso , Mali and Niger , which have taken an authoritarian path to address insecurity, relying heavily on Russia’s support . To that end, it has been rather conciliatory, lifting sanctions and cooperating with Guinea’s junta.
Whether this strategy helps bring about genuine democratisation or simply helps the junta consolidate power remains to be seen. The situation could also potentially compel ECOWAS to violate its values and protocols, which clearly prohibit anyone who ascends to power through unconstitutional means, including military coups, from participating in the next election.
The next five months will be decisive for Guinea’s future. The country stands at a critical crossroads, and while we hope the junta honours its commitments, only time will tell whether this leads to a real transition or it’s just a facade.
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SEE ALSO
Guinea: ‘The international community can support a democratic transition by backing a truly participatory process’ CIVICUS Lens | Interview with Alix Boucher 14.Feb.2025
Guinea: Democracy delayed once more CIVICUS Lens 07.Feb.2025
Guinea’s military in no hurry to return to the barracks CIVICUS Lens 18.Aug.2022
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
