Hurricane Erin spaghetti models show potential paths as warning issued

Erin, the first hurricane to develop over the Atlantic this year, is moving toward the Caribbean islands and is expected to create dangerous conditions in much of the East Coast next week, according to forecasters.

After quickly strengthening to a Category 5 storm on Saturday, Erin was downgraded to Category 3 early on Sunday as its wind speed slowed down a little, offering some relief to those on its path.

Why It Matters

The East Coast is on high alert as this year’s Atlantic hurricane season has reached a time when more activity is expected. The season runs from June 1 to November 30, but the busiest times are expected between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Every year, tropical storms and hurricanes cause billions of dollars in damage across the U.S., shaking up the life of residents affected. This year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects an above-average season with about 13 to 19 named storms, including three to five major hurricanes. So far, five tropical cyclones have formed, and one storm that turned into a hurricane.

What To Know

Spaghetti models are a type of weather forecasting map that experts use to predict where the center of a storm will be five, seven or 14 days in the future. Each long strand in the model shows a potential path for the storm; the closer these strands are, the more confident experts feel that is the likely trajectory the storm will follow.

According to forecasters, Erin is moving toward the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. This is not a truth set in stone: forecasters’ predictions are based on the most likely path of the storm, but things could still change as the storm moves on.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center also say that the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should remain on high alert. Currently, tropical storm watches are in effect for St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten and the Turks and Caicos.

While Erin won’t make a direct hit on the U.S., the hurricane is expected to create dangerous surf and rip currents in parts of the East Coast, including Florida. It could also affect the beaches of the Bahamas and Atlantic Canada.

Florida beaches can expect dangerous conditions next week, including large ocean wells, rip currents and rough, high surf with breakers greater than 7 feet, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Jacksonville.

What People Are Saying

The National Hurricane Center wrote on X: “Erin is expected to grow in size. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along U.S. east coast beaches beginning Monday and lasting most of next week.”

Meteorologist Matthew Cappucci wrote on X: “Erin is a maelstrom of meteorological mayhem as it puts on a pageant of power and elegance. It has rapidly intensified at three times the rate needed to qualify.”

Hurricane expert Michael Lowry wrote on X: “Erin is only the 5th Category 5 hurricane on record to form this early in the hurricane season and the only Category 5 observed outside the Gulf or Caribbean this early in the year.”

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told USA TODAY: “We still expect this to eventually make a more northward turn and stay offshore of the East Coast of the United States. So that certainly is good news when dealing with a storm this powerful.”

The NWS Miami wrote on social media: “Regardless of pre season forecasts or the final storm tally, it only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community. Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint.”

What Happens Next

Florida is possibly the single most vulnerable state in the country to hurricanes, with the most devastating storms tending to hit after the season’s September peak.