How do NJ beachgoers feel about the governor’s race? Gothamist hit the shore.

August on the Jersey Shore means soaking up sun as the tide rolls in and out, filling your belly with an overabundance of funnel cake, and doing your level best not to think, discuss and — for goodness sake — quarrel about politics.

But in less than 90 days, New Jerseyans will cast their ballot in what appears to be a tightening governor’s race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. A new Stimsight Research poll this week reduced Sherrill’s once-healthy 20-point lead to just 6 points. That’s down even further from a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll last week that showed just an 8-point advantage.

“It’s a competitive race, no matter how you slice it,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.

Political observers have long seen New Jersey’s off-year gubernatorial election as a bellwether for the nation’s larger political mood. And no matter which way it goes, it will be breaking norms in the state, said Dan Cassino, polling director at Fairleigh Dickinson University.

A Sherrill victory could be seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress. But it would also mean winning a third consecutive term for her party, which hasn’t happened frequently in New Jersey’s history.

A Ciattarelli win, on the other hand, would come in spite of his alignment with Trump, who is very unpopular in the state, according to the polls.

“Number one, no party ever wins three times in a row. And number two, the president’s party always loses in the governor’s race the next year,” Cassino said, outlining the state’s paradox.

With the state on the cusp of such a marquee political decision, we headed to the beach in Asbury Park, New Jersey to see what the flip-flop-and-boogie board set had to say about the race.

We got a fair amount of “hey, I’m on vacation, scram“ when we peered under some beach umbrellas. But many beachgoers offered a diversity of opinions on the candidates and key issues that illustrate why this race looks likely to be a nail-biter come the fall.

‘Tired of Democrats’

MJ Zonfrillo, from Long Valley, said she’s “tired” of Democrats controlling everything in state government and is ready to cast her ballot for Jack Ciattarelli. Her daughter, Melissa Zonfrillo, agreed it’s time for a change.

“ I’m definitely voting for Jack, that’s for sure. … We need to flip this red,” she said.

For the past 23 years, Democrats have held the majority in both houses of the state Legislature. And with Gov. Phil Murphy, they’ve had the governor’s office for the past eight. But Trump came within 5 points of winning the state in 2024 — about a 10-point improvement compared to his run four years earlier — and Republicans now see New Jersey as a state in play.

Democrats still hold a sizable 800,000-voter registration lead over Republicans in New Jersey. Fairleigh Dickinson’s recent poll shows that a healthy majority (87%) of registered Democrats plan to back Sherrill in November. If Ciattarelli and Republicans are to have any hope of winning, they’ll need to get undecided voters on their side.

Alejandro Fernandez, from North Bergen, said he’s undecided but leaning toward Ciattarelli.

“Just going based on what I’ve seen so far, I think Jack might be a little better for us,” he said.

Fernandez said immigration is his key issue and he’d be looking for a governor to further Trump’s policies.

“I’m an immigrant like most of this country is, but you got to come the right way,” he said.

‘Things get so expensive’

Cheryl Kazira, from Nutley, said she’s leaning toward Sherrill over Ciattarelli. As a former teacher, Kazira said she thinks Sherrill will be “kinder to education” as well as better on taxes.

“I’ve lived here all my life and I’ve just seen things get so expensive,” she said.

With Trump in the White House, national politics is dominating the headlines. But in New Jersey, one of the country’s most expensive and densely populated states, affordability is a major local issue on voters’ minds. Not only are housing prices high, electricity rates jumped 20% this past year, and are set to rise even further next year.

Millie Roski, a teacher from Long Valley, said he believes Ciattarelli is the more likely candidate to “give me more money in my paycheck.”

“[Democrats] really don’t actually execute any programs that support us,” she said.

Lori Murphy, from New Providence, said she didn’t back Sherrill in the Democratic primary — she voted for Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop — but now she’s excited to support the party’s nominee.

“We love Mikie. … She’s progressive enough, but not too much that it would scare people off — and we need her right now,” Murphy said.

The Trump factor

So far, Sherrill has made it her mission in the campaign to marry her opponent to Trump, said Cassino, the Fairleigh Dickinson University pollster.

“I think every  third word out of her mouth is Donald Trump, because she knows Donald Trump is unpopular,” he said.

Lori Murphy called Ciattarelli a “puppet for Trump” and said New Jersey needs a governor who will do “the opposite” of what the president is doing on issues like the environment and health care.

But in recent weeks, Ciattarelli has tried to shift the dialogue away from national politics and focus on local issues and, as he sees it, the failed leadership of Democrats and Gov. Murphy.

Still, voters appear to remain keenly aware of Ciattarelli’s connection to Trump, which hasn’t always been so rosy. Before Trump emerged from a crowded field of Republicans and eventually took the White House in 2016, Ciattarelli referred to him as a “charlatan” and “not fit to be president.”

“ I can’t go for Jack. He hated Trump; now he loves him. So anybody like that I’m not going to vote for,” said Rich Centenary, from Boonton, who said he’s leaning toward Sherrill.

Sandra Romero, from Bloomfield, said she’s undecided but Ciattarelli’s close connection to Trump doesn’t make her feel good.

However, Romero said that if Ciattarelli puts forward a good plan to lower the cost of living by tackling issues like high electricity bills and property taxes, she could still be swayed to vote for him.

“I don’t think that’s off the table,” she said.