Political reporter
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has declined to put a figure on how many migrants will be returned to France under a new agreement that comes into force tomorrow.
Some migrants arriving in the UK on small boats will be detained and returned to France under a pilot scheme lasting 11 months.
In return, the UK will accept an equal number of asylum seekers who have not tried to cross and can pass security and eligibility checks.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the plan was a “product of months of grown-up diplomacy” which would “deliver real results” but the Conservatives said it would prove “unworkable and wide open to abuse”.
As of 30 July, more than 25,000 people had crossed the Channel in small boats in 2025 – about 49% higher than at the same point in 2024.
UK and international law prevents the government from sending asylum seekers back to their country of origin before their claim has been considered and turned down. However, they can be sent to safe countries prepared to consider their claim.
Under a new treaty published on Tuesday, France has agreed to take back adults or accompanied children who make a journey to the UK by small boat, once any asylum claim is withdrawn or declared inadmissible.
Both countries have agreed to work towards making transfers with three months after small boat arrivals have entered the UK.
However, Cooper would not be drawn on how many returns were likely to be made, stressing the scheme starting up was a trial.
“The numbers will start lower and then build,” she told BBC Breakfast, adding that precise details could be used as “operational information” by criminal gangs.
There have been reports that 50 people per week could be returned, compared with the weekly average of more than 800 people currently making the crossing.
Peter Walsh, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, said the number of returns would need to be higher to have a deterrent effect.
Asked whether 50 returns a week would have an impact on crossings, he said: “On the current rate of arrivals, that would be roughly a 5% chance of being returned.
“People are already taking such a big risk, they’re risking their lives by getting in a small boat, so you’d have to imagine that that kind of percentage might not be enough to move the needle.”
The government has also disclosed details of how people will apply to come to the UK from France under the scheme.
Successful applicants will initially be granted the right to come to the UK for three months, to “consider how to regularise their stay”.
Applicants will apply online – but have to submit proof to the Home Office they are applying from within France.
The UK has agreed to pay the transportation costs both of those migrants it sends to France, and those it accepts back in return.
Sir Keir has previously said the “one-in-one-out” returns pilot scheme with France is not “a silver bullet” but he believes it will deter people from making the dangerous journey following a big increase in the numbers so far this year.
He announced the agreement with Emmanuel Macron in July, but it was still subject to legal scrutiny by the European Commission and EU member states.
At that point, the charity Asylum Matters criticised the measure, arguing: “The only way to stop people from making dangerous journeys is to give them real safe routes to seek sanctuary.”
The UK government has now said that the “EU Commission, Germany and other member states have given the green light on this innovative approach” meaning the scheme can go ahead.
Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the government’s deal with the French would be less effective than the Rwanda plan proposed by the previous Conservative government.
“This is a pathetic deal, which simply won’t work,” he added.
“There are no numbers specified, presumably because they are so small they would embarrass the home secretary.
“It’s exactly what we’ve been warning about – a bureaucrat’s dream and a lawyer’s paradise set to prevent people ever being returned to France.”
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