Week 7: 4-0*
2024: 27-16
We were back to our dominating ways last week, lads.
Weekly Post-Mortem
Told ya’
MORTAL LOCK: Given the uncertainty at QB, the ‘Cuse’s physicality and far better performance against a far tougher schedule, there may not be a better one this week, while the number stays low. And all that is helped by an NC State team that has not covered a single spread this season (0-5-1).
Not pretty — Home Doeren has historically fielded a much better NCSU team than Evil Road Doeren — but Syracuse -7.34
Syracuse, in fact, won by exactly a touchdown. #AlwaysTrustTheData
What tha?
Where is the fifth game? Why the asterisk?!
Well, see….it doesn’t count. I cranked the data for Purdue at Indiana, and wrote it up that way as well. The game was, in fact, Purdue at Illinois. I write up 60+ of these every week. It happens sometimes. So, just hold on to that pick in your pocket though when Purdue faces Indiana: they’re going to get killed.
Anyway, you know the drill, we have half a dozen to go through today: a few we like, a few we love, two underdogs to consider, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.
I may throw a few extras in here, because, hey, why not? F’ Tennessee.
Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet
Duke -3 vs. FSU
DYK that FSU’s offense has hit 20+ exactly one time all season? This is an amazingly terrible offense. Duke’s is not much better though. They play close games. This one may not get out of the 30s, and that’s probably why it’s too close to call. (But, personally, I think this is a Duke W and cover. I hesitate to throw anything on it though, because we don’t really know what QB2 looks like with a full week of prep. FSU could have been playing DJU out of a sunk-cost fallacy. For their sake, they better hope so. I can’t imagine a starting QB who objectively couldn’t beat out that guy.)
This game is going to be trash #GoACC. Duke -2.77
One A Few We Like
Wisconsin -7 at Northwestern — I don’t know what got into Wisco, but they’ve been laying the lumber lately. Sneaky-decent and fast-improving 4-2 team with only a one-point road loss to USC and the Alabama defenestration to their discredit. Using recency modeling, this one pushes closer to two touchdowns. The Wildcats are a tougher out in Evanston for sure, but that means this is a 10-point sort of game rather than a two tuddie game. My one hesitancy is Luke Fickell as a road favorite: he stunk at Cincy. Still, UW is the better team…or they better be for his sake. Think 23-13ish Wisconsin -12.19
BYU -9 vs. Oklahoma State — I think this may be my favorite game of the weeknight tilts. BYU is playing ungodly good football at home: They lead the country in home TOs, at +7 in just 3 games. And the Pokes have been lifeless this year. Their defense is particularly abominable. Mormons strike again. BYU -13.60
One A Few We Love
NCSU +10 at Cal — Grayson McCall is back from injury, but he’s struggled mightily in the P5: his QBR is 50 points lower than his CCU days, his completion % is barely above 50, he’s throwing for almost 3 fewer yards per attempt (which is frankly an insane drop-off), and his 3D passing is sub 35%. That’s bad news in a four-time zone road game against one of the best defenses in the country that averages +1.67 in the ole’ plus minus. Lotta’ short fields for the Bears, it seems. I think I like this one a good deal. Doubly so with Road Doeren making an appearance, and that guy’s brainpower on the road is up there with Hugh Freeze playing Trivial Pursuit. #Calgorithm -13.49
Troy +11 at USA — While a rivalry, Troy is simply awful this year. Giving up almost 6 YPC in conference play is how you get blown out. The biggest question for USA remains, as always, whether their defense will show up this week. LSU fans are still mad at Nick Saban, but Sumrall is the real monster. I’ve rarely seen a coach crush a program on his way out the door quite like he did with the Trojans. South Alabama -12.42
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Underdog With Bite
Michigan -1.5 at Illinois
God only knows why the Wolverines are favored here, outside of jersey and reputation. UM is a turnover magnet with no passing game and a deeply rebuilt defense that can and has been bullied. I really like the Illini’s passing game against a UM secondary that has already surrendered 12 TD passes in 6 games…they gave up 9 TD passes all of last year in 15 games. We got us a wrong team favored, fellas.
FEAR THE BERT. Illinois -2.67
Ginormous Spread Worth Your Attention
There aren’t a lot of big-spread games now that we’re in the heart of the conference schedules. So, we’ll go out the Left Coast for Surfing vs. Wheat Farming.
Wazzu -19 vs. Hawaii
I like the Warriors’ rebuilding lines; the defense is especially nice vs. the run. But they’re out of their depth here, particularly on the Mainland, and home Wazzu is a ferocious spread critter in Pullman, my favorite non-Ames college town set in farm country. UH’s biggest weakness, aside from not really having an offense fit for purpose, is its secondary. And that is what the Cougars do best. The Rainbow Warriors haven’t covered a roadie vs. the P12 in a dozen years. This seems a decent game, though perhaps not the slaughter you might think.
Cougars win a three-touchdown tuneup. WSU -22.41
Mortal Lock
UAB +13.5 at USF
We said it last week; we reiterate it now. The Blazers are cooked. They don’t even look like they’re trying any more, especially on defense.
UAB +24.5 at Army — The wheels have fallen off in Birmingham. We should just take our med school back. You get the sense that Army is going to whack them.
Barring some miracle, we’ll keep betting against them if the data can remotely justify doing so. Fortunately, they do in this case. Good chance for the Bulls to get back on track in a must-win. I’m not kidding here — USF may run for over 300 yards against a UAB defensive front that can’t stop a water gun in an Abrams. Blaze is 0-4 OTR ATS. BONUS FUN FACT: UAB is tied with Auburn for worst +/- in the country!
Trent Dilfer destroyed this program far more effectively than Bear Jr. ever did. We should take our med school back from these clowns.
USF -15.22
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
Just five bucks a month, though with inflation, that shit is working out to about $3.13 a month for me these days. Womp. Womp.
Poll
Mizzou -6.5 at home vs. the Barn?
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0%
Mizzou are frauds. Barn’s offense can be dangerous against a defense that Aggie exposed last week. #Allin #GodThing #Fambly +6.5
(0 votes)
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100%
Road Hugh Freeze is even dumber than Home Hugh Freeze, and Missouri’s secondary is going to tee off on Auburn’s Voltron of Suck under center. Mizzou -6.5
(1 vote)
1 vote total
Vote Now
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)