(The Hill) – California and New York are signaling they will move forward with plans to redraw congressional lines as Democrats look to counter the Texas GOP.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said on Monday that Democrats are pursuing a plan to put mid-decade redistricting before voters, which could be “triggered” by what happens in Texas. And New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), appearing alongside Texas Democrats who fled to her state over the proposed maps on Monday, embraced exploring “every option” to redraw congressional lines.
Both states, however, face challenges with their plans and are unlikely to have new maps before next year’s midterm elections, when Republicans will be defending their narrow 219-212 House majority.
“What Texas has done now is that: If you drive the car all the way off the cliff, there’s no road. And I don’t know if they realize exactly how far they may have pushed some other actors around the country,” said Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University who founded the database “All About Redistricting.”
Texas Republicans’ proposed redistricting plan, which is backed by President Trump and could net the GOP several more congressional seats, prompted Texas Democrats to flee their state and break quorum, depriving the chamber of the numbers it needs to function.
But while their move, which comes with significant legal and political hurdles for the participating state legislators, puts a pause on state House business, it’s unlikely to kill the proposal altogether. As a result, Democrats are eyeing opportunities to cancel out would-be Republican gains in the Lone Star State by redistricting to their benefit elsewhere.
Newsom told reporters on Monday that California is charging ahead with preparations for potential redistricting ahead of the midterms “in response to the existential realities that we’re now facing.”
“We’re going to fight fire with fire,” Newsom said. “We also will punch above our weight in terms of the impact of what we’re doing, and I think that should be absorbed by those in the Texas delegation. Whatever they are doing will be neutered here in the state of California.”
Leaders in the blue stronghold are considering a plan that would put mid-decade redistricting before voters during a special election this November, contingent on whether Texas moves forward with gerrymandered maps.
“It’s cause and effect, triggered on the basis of what occurs or doesn’t occur in Texas,” the governor said.
The plan would maintain the framework of California’s independent redistricting commission but “allow for this mid-census redistricting to occur just for congressional maps in 26, 28 and 30,” before revering to the existing system, Newsom explained.
Sara Sadhwani, a current member of the redistricting commission that redrew California’s lines in 2021 and a politics professor at Pomona College, said she stands by the Golden State’s current maps as “a real win for democracy and for fair redistricting.”
“However, certainly, as other states are going to engage in gerrymandering, extreme gerrymandering, it subverts the voices of Californians and American voters broadly speaking,” she said. “I can understand why Democrats would want to fight back.”
Sadhwani predicted that Newsom and the California legislature would need to “campaign heavily” if it goes through with the plans for a special election, due to the popularity of independent redistricting at both the state and local levels.
Politico reported on Tuesday that former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is ready to campaign against the plan.
“No doubt the governor and the legislature would have their work cut out for them to convince voters that this is the right move,” Sadhwani said.
California could be Democrats’ best hope to counter Texas, as other states are even more unlikely to implement changes by 2026.
Hochul on Monday said she’s exploring options to redraw New York congressional lines “as soon as possible,” working on a legislative process and reviewing legal strategies “to stop this brazen assault.”
“You have to fight fire with fire,” she said, adding “all’s fair in love and war.”
“For Republicans, they could potentially be [in] a situation where there are no safe seats. They’re vulnerable everywhere,” said Democratic strategist Basil Smikle, a former executive director of the New York State Democratic Party.
“This is a problem of the president and the party’s own making because you want to play cute by doing this in Texas. Why would you think that that’s not going to happen everywhere? That you’re not going to give leave to Democratic governors to do the same thing?” Smilke said.
But in New York, where House maps were struck down by a court in 2022 for giving a partisan advantage to Democrats, there are hurdles for mid-decade redistricting.
The state uses a redistricting commission, and maps are subject to the state legislature’s approval. The state constitution would also need amending, and that process requires two consecutive sessions before heading to voters — so Democrats wouldn’t have time to change things before 2026.
Mid-decade changes in the Empire State would be “very tricky, both politically and practically,” said Jonathan Cervas, the redistricting expert who redrew New York’s congressional lines in 2022. He was appointed by the state supreme court as a neutral special master after the earlier maps were tossed.
“It’s very unlikely to happen, certainly before the next election,” Cervas said. “It may not happen at all, because voters may reject the idea of giving up their system that is created for the purposes of creating a more even playing ground for voters.”
Meanwhile, the Texas developments are reverberating in other GOP states too.
Ohio is set to push forward with redistricting that could impact two Democrat-held House seats, while Florida Republicans have floated their own plans to redraw lines.
Other blue states besides California and New York are also weighing their options. Leaders of Maryland and New Jersey have left the door open, though there would be fewer seats to grab in the smaller blue states.
There could also be a path forward for Democrats in Illinois, where there’s more mid-cycle flexibility.
Illinois might be able to get “creative” with its approach to redrawing lines and squeeze the existing three GOP-held seats, Levitt suggested.
But an aggressive gerrymander in the Prairie State could backfire, suggested Cervas, “because then you cut the margins of the Democratic seats too thin and risk losing some of them, too.”
“All that boils down to is that there are few legal ways for Democrats to counteract Texas, and there are very few practical ways of doing it as well,” he added.
These conversations come against the backdrop of a 2019 ruling by the Supreme Court that excessive partisan gerrymandering is a political issue, rather than a question for federal courts.
“When you don’t have recourse … you do exactly what’s going on here, which is the [Texas] Democrats leave town and Democrats elsewhere try to figure out how to punch back,” Levitt said.
Despite the challenges, efforts to engage in tit-for-tat redistricting aren’t exactly a shock to experts as both parties fret over thin margins in Congress and the high-stakes midterm season ahead.
“Politics is really on a knife’s edge, where the control of Congress and our political institutions really comes down to just a few seats. And so trying to get advantage wherever you can, from political parties’ perspective, makes a lot of sense,” Cervas said. “Redistricting is a relatively inexpensive way to increase your [electoral] power, compared to the politics of shaking hands and winning over voters.”
Jared Gans contributed.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
