5 Phillies thoughts: Are they good, or bad at baserunning? And where are the homers?

The Phillies are just barely in first place in their division with one series remaining before the 2025 MLB All-Star Break. 

But all is not right for the contending and ambitious Phillies.

Inconsistent play and huge holes in the roster, mainly in the bullpen and outfield, continue to plague a team that could be 10 games ahead with a few different players manning key positions.

All eyes will be on the front office as the trade deadline approaches at the end of this month. The Phillies are idle in California Thursday, before they play the Padres at the site of their greatest recent triumph — winning the NLCS in 2022 over San Diego. 

Here are five thoughts I felt were interesting as we wait for more baseball this weekend:

Make a big swing

Phillies fans who agree that this team needs to go all in — as it faces a continually aging roster and the prospect of losing Ranger Suárez, J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber next season — will like a report that came from The Athletic’s Matt Gelb on Thursday:

The Phillies, for now, sound more willing to trade bigger prospect chips for controllable big leaguers, especially a shutdown, late-inning reliever. The Phillies have a top-heavy farm system; major-league sources said initial indications are the Phillies want to shop this July in a more expensive aisle than the rental one. They have the prospects to do it. [The Athletic]

This is really good news, as the team has really just dipped its toes in the water over the past few seasons. Marginal acquisitions like Austin Hays, Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen, none of whom made any kind of impact in the postseason in recent seasons, aren’t going to cut it.

All-star snubs

The Phillies have two All-Star reserves, Kyle Schwarber and Zack Wheeler — both deserving.

If you peruse some of the stat leaderboards in the National League, there are some clear Phillies snubs. The players with the following accomplishments are not All-Stars:

• The 5th best batting average in the NL (Trea Turner)
• The most hits in the NL (by nine) (Turner)
• The 3rd most stolen bases in the NL (Turner)
• The 5th most doubles in the NL (Nick Castellanos)
• The 10th most total hits in the NL (Alec Bohm, Castellanos)
• The 3rd highest WAR for pitchers in the NL (Cris Sánchez)
• The 6th highest WAR for pitchers in the NL (Ranger Suárez)
• The 4th best ERA in the NL (Sánchez)

Trea Turner, Cris Sánchez and Ranger Suárez are total snubs.

Home runs, where are you?

When Kyle Schwarber hit his 29th homer of the season in San Francisco Wednesday, it was the team’s 100th home run of the year — this making them the 15th team to hit 100 home runs this season. Not great. 

Schwarber is the only player ahead of his regular home run pace in the starting lineup:

If everyone hit their exact 162-game career average for home runs this season — which is obviously a stretch because few players play 162 games anymore, but the fairest metric for measurement — their nine regular hitters would hit 209 home runs. Those nine are currently on pace to hit 161 home runs. Last year, the Phillies hit 198 homers — the 7th most.

Base-running: strength or weakness?

The eye test shows that the Phillies, often, make baserunning mistakes. But they make them for a reason that manager Rob Thomson and fans should be able to swallow — they’re aggressive. The Phillies have the third best on-base percentage in the majors at .330, and they know how to use it. 

Despite a few high-profile outs made trying to nab an extra bag, the Phillies have been remarkably efficient at high volume when it comes to stealing bases. They have the fifth most in the majors — 82 of them — and the third best success rate — 82%. 

When it comes to those extra bases, though, Philly has made 35 outs when trying to stretch an extra bag in some way, the third most in the majors. Of those, 15 were outs made at home, the second most in the sport. 

The MLB draft

The Phillies have their full complement of draft picks for next week’s MLB draft, starting with 26th overall. Baseball drafts are hard to really get excited about because it takes so long for the talent to develop and make it to the majors. For all we know, whoever they pick Sunday evening with their first selection won’t sniff the major leagues until the majority of the current stars on the team are in their late 30s.

However, it is important. If the Phillies shop or trade away any of their big-name prospects this July, like Mick Abel or Aidan Miller, they need to replenish. Their prospect pool is being called “top heavy” by many experts. I’m hoping to see them nab some steals in the draft that wind up on top 30 prospect lists for years to come. It’s the only way to maintain contention.

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