Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ramped up the frequency of his political consultations, amid fears that his coalition may collapse once the Knesset returns from hiatus in October, the Ynet news site reported Sunday night, citing unnamed political sources close to the premier.
The report comes after a poll published by Channel 12 showed Netanyahu’s Likud party dropping to 24 seats if elections were held today, down from 27 a week before. The results would see a loss of power for the bloc led by Netanyahu, with 49 seats to the opposition’s 61, and Arab parties winning the remaining 10 in the 120-seat Knesset.
The prime minister doesn’t want early elections, and has not taken steps in that direction, according to the Ynet report, but it said he’s been holding more political consultations after the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties withdrew from the government when it failed to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from the military draft.
One of the issues raised in the consultations has reportedly been how to merge the slates of the Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir — two far-right lawmakers who, while broadly in alignment, have clashed since the last election, when they ran together.
Netanyahu was also said to have raised concerns that the anti-LGBTQ, misogynistic Noam party, led by MK Avi Maoz — who joined Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s joint slate in the 2022 elections and become his party’s sole representative in Knesset — could siphon votes away from Likud if the far-right merger is not reprised.
In previous elections, Netanyahu has sought to incentivize mergers within his bloc by promising a high spot on his own Likud slate to a member of the larger of the two parties he wants to see merge. According to Ynet, that will be harder for the premier this time around, because the party is projected to win fewer seats overall.
Otzma Yehudit head Itamar Ben Gvir (left) and Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich submit their joint electoral list to the Central Election Committee at the Knesset on September 14, 2022. (Arie Leib Abrams/Flash90)
The premier is also looking into the creation of a satellite party, Ynet reported, to appeal to right-wing voters who don’t want to vote for Likud or for its far-right coalition partners — but could be prevented from supporting the parties of former premier Naftali Bennett, or the hawkish Avigdor Liberman, both right-wing figures who are highly critical of Netanyahu and are not part of his bloc.
The maneuver — which Netanyahu has also tried in the past — would require an appealing political figure to lead the satellite party, and sources privy to the search told Ynet the names currently being considered include former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen and former generals Ofer Winter and Dedi Simchi — but that none has proven sufficiently popular.
Netanyahu and his advisers also reportedly discussed internal Likud politics, emphasizing the need to quickly advance the merger announced last week with Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) shakes hands with New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar after the latter announces his reentry into government, September 29, 2024. (Chaim Tzach/GPO)
The prime minister was also said to be aiming to avoid holding elections for new members of the Likud Central Committee in light of his current hold over the party’s mechanisms, telling his aides to examine if this is legally possible — potentially by using primaries as a grounds for pushing off the committee elections.
Poll: Likud down 3 seats, opposition has razor-thin majority
The Ynet report came on the heels of a Channel 12 poll Sunday that showed Likud dropping slightly, and the centrist Blue and White-National Unity, under Benny Gantz, failing to cross the electoral threshold if elections were held today.
Netanyahu’s Likud lost three seats compared to the previous poll, dropping to 24. The yet-unnamed party led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett came in second with 20 seats, followed by a theoretical party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot with 12, in the 120-seat Knesset.
The poll gave Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu 11 seats, and Yair Golan’s left-wing The Democrats 11 as well. The Sephardic ultra-Orthodox Shas dropped to 8, with current opposition chief Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid at 7; the Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism also came in at 7 seats.
Far-right Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party would garner 6, and the two Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would each win 5, according to the poll. Far-right Religious Zionism under Bezalel Smotrich would get 4 seats, passing the electoral threshold for the first time in months.
Neither Gantz nor the Arab party Balad would cross the electoral threshold.
The results would give the current opposition a slim 61-seat majority, with the current coalition at 49 and the Arab parties making up the other 10.
The poll examined the effects of Eisenkot’s recent breakaway from Gantz’s party, and looked at the scenarios should he opt for a joint run with other opposition candidates.
MK Gadi Eisenkot holds a press conference after announcing his resignation from the Knesset and departure from the National Unity party, in Tel Aviv on July 1, 2025. (Erik Marmor/ Flash90)
It found that, should Eisenkot team up with Yesh Atid and lead that ticket, the joint party would get 17 seats.
If he were to join Bennett as his number two, they would become the largest party with 27 seats.
However, in both scenarios there was no major shift in the balance of power between the opposition and coalition blocs.
The poll was conducted among 505 respondents and had a margin of error of 4.4%.
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