Tropical Storm Erin is expected to strengthen on Friday to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season.
In its latest advisory on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Erin was about 790 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
Erin was moving westward at 17 mph, and was expected to strengthen “during the next day or so.”
Are there any watches or warnings in effect?
As of Thursday evening, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- Anguilla and Barbuda
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- Sint Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
The NHC has said “interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.”
How will Erin affect land?
Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rain beginning late Friday and into the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, as well as isolated totals of 6 inches.
Wind and swells are also possible. According to the NHC, the swells could affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
5pm EDT 8/14 Key Messages on Tropical Storm #Erin: Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the northernmost #LeewardIslands, where heavy rainfall/flooding and tropical storm force winds are possible beginning early Saturday. See https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ for additional details pic.twitter.com/XDx0FJjZ6o
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 14, 2025
When could Erin become a hurricane?
The NHC said in its advisory that Erin is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday.
Erin could experience more significant intensification on Friday or Saturday, becoming a major hurricane (Category 3) by the end of the week.
Will Erin hit Florida?
According to the NHC’s forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
“A lot of cascading error would need to unfold for there to be issues for the state of Florida,” NBC6 meteorologist Ryan Phillips said.
But a major hurricane even remotely close to the U.S. could of course come with a high risk of rip currents and rougher seas. NBC6 will watch for these impacts.
When do forecast models become more certain?
Models tend to become less accurate as we go further out in time, which is why forecasts like the cone from the National Hurricane Center only go out five days.
In the next one to two days, the storm’s forward speed and location will be scrutinized as little adjustments now can and will have an impact later. The more data is gathered in the initial stages of a storm, the better the predictions can be.
NBC6
NBC6 NBC6’s Adam Berg on Aug. 13 shows how several models predict Erin’s turn north-northwest.
A word of caution about social media posts and misinformation
It’s normal to want to prepare for a potential storm, and you should ready a hurricane kit as part of the normal Atlantic hurricane season.
But part of this interest may be fueled by the onslaught of recent social media chatter of a storm heading towards the United States in the coming weeks. This data is often sprayed across social channels with no explanation, context or disclaimer of limitations. Rather, it’s generally a worst-case scenario that is cherry-picked from hundreds of computer model forecasts in a given day.
Remember, hurricane specialist John Morales says global forecast models forecasting beyond the seven to 10-day period often bet big on storms that, given the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, can only be placed in a bucket labeled “fantastical speculation.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
