Analyzing NFL executives’ perceptions of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

Each year, Mike Sando of The Athletic publishes his outstanding “QB Tiers” post, this year with commentary gathered from “six general managers, six assistant GMs, six former GMs, five other executives, eight head coaches and 19 other coaches, including 15 coordinators.”

So, you know, these rankings are from people with (mostly) high-level jobs in the NFL, as opposed to any old jabroni with a keyboard who thinks Geno Smith or Trevor Lawrence are better than Jalen Hurts because, “Durrr, hUrtS’ tEAm is gUd, sO tHaT mEAnS hE’s nOt gUd.”

Spoiler: Hurts finished tied for ninth with the Texans’ C.J. Stroud. The eight guys ahead of Hurts:

1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
2. Joe Burrow, Bengals
3. Josh Allen, Bills
4. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
5. Matthew Stafford, Rams
6. Jayden Daniels, Commanders
7. Justin Herbert, Chargers
8. Jared Goff, Lions

I can’t fathom how a consensus panel puts Goff ahead of Hurts. Also, don’t results matter, just a little bit? Herbert was in the same draft class as Hurts and has only been to the playoffs twice. He’s 0-2 with a 60.7 QB rating. But whatever. 

Let’s get to the actual commentary on Hurts, who I believe is an often misunderstood player.

Hurts’ standing in Tiers barely changed after his Eagles won the Super Bowl with a run-oriented offense, a stacked roster and high-level production from Hurts on the biggest stage.

“Jalen does everything the right way for how they have been built,” an offensive coordinator said. “I see him as a really good player on a team with a bunch of really good players.”

#JimmySays: OK, so far, so good.

This is Hurts’ third consecutive season in Tier 2.

“He has improved from the pocket, but when you play him, you still want him to beat you from there — that is the whole plan,” a head coach said. “If he can get out of the pocket in two-minute, he is effective as hell, and he has done it. But he has to do it with his legs in crunch time. The guys you want can do it with the arm and legs in crunch time.”

#JimmySays: I don’t understand what this means. “The guy you want can do it with the arm and legs in crunch time.” Name the games in which he failed to deliver a win in crunch time because the opposing team kept him in the pocket. And then, how do his failures in those moments compare with the quarterbacks ranked ahead of him?

Hurts has the lowest average tier vote for any quarterback coming off a Super Bowl victory since Eagles alum Nick Foles won as a backup after the 2017 season.

This speaks to the Eagles’ ability to assemble top-notch rosters around their quarterbacks. Hurts also might be underrated.

“This is going to sound like I don’t like him, but I do,” a GM said. “Just by the definition, I feel he is more of a 3. Am I on an island with that?”

Nope: Eleven other voters also placed Hurts in Tier 3.

“Hurts is always a tough one for me,” a former GM said. “I think he is a 3. They are very talented around him, and he is not as consistent as a passer. They have a strong defense, great playmakers, great offensive line. He is able to function that way. But I don’t know that he is the one that elevates them. That is not a slight.

“He is a good player. But putting him in that 2 category, I don’t see that.”

#JimmySays: It seems like a number of folks may have voted for Hurts in “Tier 3” because of the Tier 3 description:

“A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.”

I’ll disagree that he needs a great defense to win. Certainly, Hurts and the Eagles’ offense can pile up points on their own. It feels like some folks probably put him in Tier 3 simply because the Eagles had the No. 1 ranked defense in 2024. As for the “heavier run game,” he’s a major contributor to the run game. It’s not that he needs a heavier run game — He IS the run game in many ways. It’s not like he’s Jim McMahon handing off to Walter Payton all day.

Tier 2 also fits him:

“A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure-passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.”

I think that what evaluations of Hurts often miss or dismiss is how much of a weapon he is with his legs. Like, that’s a pretty big positive! Right? But somehow his ability as a runner is framed less as an enviable trait, and more as a slight, as in, “That’s the only way he can win,” which is a weird assessment given the assumption that every one of these people watched his passing efficiency in the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl.

Hurts attempted 30 or more passes in each of the Eagles’ first four games last season, but only once thereafter as Philadelphia leaned into its run game.

“They tried to throw it more early in the year,” a defensive coordinator said. “He could not do that, so they said, ‘Screw it, run the ball 40 times a game.’ I still gave Hurts a 2. He is a winner, and he can do it sometimes.”

That is certainly true that the Eagles leaned heavily into their run game after the bye last season, but again, it is commentary that doesn’t credit Hurts’ immense contributions to their success in the run game.

NFL future power rankings

ESPN published a power ranking for NFL teams over the next three years. The Eagles are defending Super Bowl champs and they have one of the youngest rosters in the league, so it’s no surprise that they came in at No. 1.

For each team there was a “bold prediction.” I just thought the Commanders’ “bold prediction” was funny:

Bold prediction: A fully refreshed defensive line will give the Commanders the pass rush they will — at that point — crave. Dorance Armstrong, Deatrich Wise Jr., Von Miller, Javon Kinlaw and Daron Payne will all be gone by then (Jer’Zhan Newton will still be around, though) and the Commanders will have spent the 2026 and 2027 offseasons investing heavily in a group that can get after the quarterback. They’ll rank in the top five in sacks in 2027. — Walder

Lol, what? They’re going to get rid of everyone on their line and finish in the top five in sacks?

(Also, this is kind of like pointing out plot holes in Happy Gilmore 2, but Kinlaw signed a three year deal worth $45 million that has him under contract through 2027. It’s funny that the perception is that he’ll be gone too, which, you know, probably shouldn’t bode well for their chances of building a top-flight D-line.)

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