High chance for tropical development, storm moves away from Florida

The National Hurricane Center increased the chance of tropical formation to high, 70 percent, within the next two days. The disturbance is located approximately 100 miles offshore in the Atlantic, just off the coast of Northeast Florida. The system may receive a name or at least become a tropical depression by Saturday afternoon. The next name on the list is Chantal.

This system will not last long over water, which will hinder its ability to intensify. Regardless of whether it develops into a tropical storm or a tropical depression, this system is expected to move inland over the southeastern United States on Saturday evening. Once the system moves overland, it will lose its tropical characteristics. While the system loses its tropical characteristics, it will continue to bring substantial tropical moisture to the southeastern United States. The biggest threats with this system will be heavy rain across the southeast, including southeast Georgia and the Carolinas.

There will still be plenty of moisture pulling over parts of Florida on Saturday, which will bring heavy rains and thunderstorms. The threat of the heaviest rains will be concentrated across the central portion of the peninsula, where flash floods may develop. Although rainfall could reach up to 4 inches, especially between Fort Myers and the Tampa Bay Area, parts of inland Central Florida, such as Orlando, Ocala, and Daytona Beach, could also experience some flooding. There has been a significant amount of rain accumulating over the last few days so that floods could develop easily.

The good news is that, although there will still be some rain and scattered storms on Sunday, we are expected to be on a drying trend. There will be more pockets of drier air moving through embedded within the pockets of moisture. There will be some showers moving across South and Central Florida on Sunday and Monday morning. Still, the afternoons will remain with lower-than-average storm activity, giving us a break from the heavy precipitation.

North Florida will still be under a layer of tropical moisture, we could say it could be (future Chantal´s) rain band, which could bring afternoon showers and storms. The Panhandle will remain the area with the most dry air in place, plenty of sunshine, and rain chances are likely to return on Thursday morning.