Financial news articles can be a good short-term indicator of why the U.S. stock market is doing well or poorly, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study, reports Clark Merrefield of The Journalist’s Resource.

Merrefield writes, “The authors organized the Journal articles by topic, then predicted what aggregate S&P 500 returns would look like based on those topics the Journal was covering. Coverage of economic events that might affect market returns, like recessions, fluctuate over time. When the economy is doing well, fewer stories use the word ‘recession.’ An uptick in recession-related stories would, for example, lead their model to predict lower overall S&P 500 returns.

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