Giving Away Money: Week 9 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

UPDATED: Oops. Looks like I pasted the same game twice. That’s corrected below with the Toledo/Bowling Green Game. Sorry about that.

Week 7: 4-3
2024: 31-19

I’m going to stop bragging. A week after going 4-0, I picked the wrong games to highlight — including perhaps the shocker of the season.

Weekly Post-Mortem

Told ya’

God only knows why the Wolverines are favored here, outside of jersey and reputation. UM is a turnover magnet with no passing game and a deeply rebuilt defense that can and has been bullied. I really like the Illini’s passing game against a UM secondary that has already surrendered 12 TD passes in 6 games…they gave up 9 TD passes all of last year in 15 games. We got us a wrong team favored, fellas.

FEAR THE BERT. Illinois -2.67

The Illini did, in fact, bully the Wolverines on both sides of the ball, and never trailed. Altmeyer didn’t even need to throw much in this game because the Illini were forcing TOs and pounding the rock.

What tha?

Oh, my god. The mad lad did it.

Barring some miracle, we’ll keep betting against UAB if the data can remotely justify doing so. Fortunately, they do in this case. Good chance for the Bulls to get back on track in a must-win.

USF did not get back on track and cover a two-score spread. Nope. They got absolutely demolished at home by a terrible UAB team that had been left for dead. That was the most shocking score of the week, honestly.

Anyway, onward and upward. We’ll probably throw a few extra in here too, because I’m bored.

Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.

Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet

Washington +6.5 at Indiana

I’d love to be all-in on this game, but with star QB Rourke hurt and having had hand surgery, we don’t many meaningful offensive data points here. Though, I would think it’s going to be a pretty sloppy, defensive effort. Both of these secondaries can get after it. Pass on it till we see what the Hoosiers have on the bench under center.

With Rourke it’s IU -10.17, without? Who knows. He’s listed as doubtful; so if that’s upgraded, take the Hoosiers at home.

One A Few We Like

Kansas +10.5 at KSU — Klieman has dominated this series, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS and not a single one of them has been within single digits. The passing games for both teams are woeful, but the Jayhawks have a fairly bad ground defense and they give it away far too often (11 INTs alone in 7 games). KU is going to have to try to make hay against the 5th best rushing defense in the country on the road at night, against their archrival (well, that’s actually Mizzou, but you know what I mean). Nah. Ain’t happening.
Another satisfying two+ score win here for EMAW. KSU -12.77

MTSU +21 at Jax State

Big spread, but I really like how the ‘Cocks have rebounded after an early start and are back to their winning ways from last year: Explosive offense, nasty defense that forces a lot of mistakes. JSU -23.51, and it could be worse than this, given how MTSU turns it over. JSU has covered three straight now that they’re in conference play.
Fightin’ Rich Rods -23.51

One A Few We Love

Toledo -2 vs. BGSU

Beware underdog Bowling Green…in big spread games, that is. Toledo is 3-1-1 the last five at home vs. single digits / BGSU. Nasty rivalry, close game, but the Falcons have seriously regressed this year. For the last few seasons, Bowling Green has leaned on an explosive offense. This season, they have a defense finally, but the offense is letting them down. As a result, they’re playing a ton of close games against practically everyone. Their reward is a road trip against an archrival with one of the MAC’s best defenses.
Toledo 4.00 (that was a psychology rewarding number!)

Utah -3.5 at Houston

Cam Rising is petitioning for a 19th season of eligibility. Dude has been paying taxes since Obama’s second term. That means the Utes have to ride and die with their defense and running game. That’s enough against the putrescent Cougars who can’t stop throwing wounded ducks.
Utes -7.37

Spruce Derden-Imagn Images

Underdog With Bite

Texas -18.5 at Vandy

Night game in Vandy? Pistol? One of the most opportunistic defenses in the country? Hyper-efficient offense? Road Sark off a hangover? Sure, the Horns should win. Even by DD. But they’re not invincible or anything either. VU is such a PITA and the ‘Dores make the most of all their opportunities. If Clark Lea isn’t COTY material, no one is. Vanderbilt could do the funniest thing if they catch Texas napping…you can practically see Sankey seething: this was meant to be another layup for the SEC’s new golden child.

VU -16.43

Ginormous Spread Worth Your Attention

Who would have ever guessed this game would be here:

FSU +21 at Miami

I don’t think the Canes are world-beaters or anything, but they’re going to do filthy, unchristian things to this awful Noles squad. Ward grabs the highlights, but Da U’s running game is what is to be feared. They can make a living against this pansy interior line Mike Norvell has slopped out on the field.
Live by the Portal, die by the Portal. UM -22.66

Mortal Lock

James Madison -24 vs. Southern Miss

Ordinarily we abstain the week after a firing, and Will Hall is now deservedly in Pink Sliplandia. But this is pretty firm footing: The Dukes were always going to kick this team’s ass; turmoil in Hattiesburg only makes that more certain, not less so. Wanna know the confidence interval on this one? It falls somewhere in the 99th% This has been, by far, the most loved game by the algorithm of the week (MTSU at Jax State is there too).

There have been bad Southern Miss teams with decent records, and decent Southern Miss teams with bad records, and even the occasional bad Southern Miss team with bad records. But this is a terrible Southern Miss team with a well-earned terrible record. How bad are the Eagles? There are 9 MAC teams that would be favored over them on a neutral field. When you’re a pick’em with Ball State, you’re in dire straits.

JMU -31.31

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month, though with inflation, that shit is working out to about $3.13 a month for me these days. Womp. Womp.