Week 2: 3-2
2024: 9-5
Told ya’:
Mortal Lock…UL -27.5 vs. Jax State — Last week, the Chanticleers immolated the JSU Gamecocks secondary, notching 13 YPA. God knows what Louisville’s actual Air Raid with 4-star athletes is going to do to them. Set them alight and hit half a hundie, probably….Luhvl -30.23, and it could conceivably be far worse than that.
Brohm was pretty forgiving. After he hit nearly 400 yards of passing, he switch to the ground attack and then rushed for 200+ yards. UL won by a ho-hum five touchdowns and it could have easily been a 50-burger beating. How bad? Two fullbacks scored.
What the?
The Longhorns aren’t going to be able to muscle their way for drives. Call it 24-20, Shorties, though an upset wouldn’t be that shocking, would it? Texas -4.03
Yes, Texas won. They were the better team on paper, as we expected. But, dear reader, Texas was, in fact, able to muscle their way for drives…and throw deep…and kick…and punt…and play defense…and force turnovers. They could have probably even crab-walked for a score. That was the most one-sided three-touchdown game I’ve seen since the vintage days of Joyless Murderball. Michigan got out-skilled, out-hustled, out-coached, out-hit and (more embarrassingly) were physically dominated on both lines by “the finesse team.”
Sark is trying his damnedest to prove he is among the nation’s best in these set-piece moments. Not many coaches can brag about claiming pelts in Tuscaloosa and Ann Arbor in the span of 11 months: in games that he voluntarily scheduled, no less. The Longhorns were one drive away in January from beating all three CFP teams in the space of 11 months. I fear the rest of the country will have to deal with Sarkisian as long as he wants to be there, and so long as Texas coughs up $100 million payrolls — which is not even a rounding errors in Austin.
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I was talking to a reader on Sunday and crowing a bit. I had a fantastic weekend (28-11), which tells me the algorithm actually got dialed into data right fairly early this season. And last week, while a lot of people lost their ass on favorites in a “down” week, thanks to the power of mathing, I was crushing it with underdogs (BC, Texas State, Cal, Illinois, Syracuse, Boise State, Wazzu etc.). As we have seen so often, it tends to be games off the beaten path that have more value than the giant, hyped contests.
And the good news is, we get to do it again this week!
So, you know the drill. We have half a dozen games to go through today: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.
Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
EDIT: We’re dropping this a day early since one of the games we like is a weeknight contest. And, as always, I’m just here to tell you the numbers, sometimes weave a story about their meaning. You’ll always want to do your own poking around.
Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:
Alabama -15.5 at Wisconsin
In Seattle, Deboer was 3-6 on the road ATS, and 1-3 vs. double-digit spreads. He was also just 2-3 at Fresno vs. double-digit spreads. We’ve no idea what to expect from this team on the road in front of 100,000 people in one of the Big 10’s rowdiest stadiums: Camp Randall jumps, and not just after the third quarter. Tyler Van Dyke is a mystery man under center, capable of looking like Brandon Avalos one week and Andrew Luck the next. With UGA coming to town next week, a Frankenstein offensive line with a crucial injury, the first Big Boys these very young players have seen, and a new offensive scheme that is going to have to adjust to crowd noise, you’d probably be a fool to bet on this one. The numbers say it’s a Tide two-touchdown win, but no cover.
Alabama could struggle at time, and in fact I’m counting on it. But you’d be a fool to bet this one either way. Alabama -13.71
BONUS:
Arkansas -24 vs. UAB
The Blazers are averaging 3 TOs per game. The Hogs are averaging a new coach every three years. So that seems fair. Seriously though, you have to worry about the Piggies’ head space in this one. Not with borrowed money would I touch this game. Pittman may have lost this team for good; let’s see how they rebound. Well, I would say that if UAB had a Leader of Men ™. The Blazers have their own rebounding to do after getting their ass kicked in Monroe. Losing to ULM by 30 points is generally not how you want to keep a job. Trent Dilfer destroyed this program more thoroughly than Bear Jr. and the UA Board of Trustees ever did…and god knows, they tried.
Toxic AF. Arkansas -23.07
One We Like:
Kansas -6.5 vs. UNLV
As we predicted last week at AGAM, the Jayhawks were ripe for the picking in Champaign. Leopold has been a miracle worker in Lawrence. But, it is still Kansas: not the most big, physical team, but a very skilled and speedy one. And BERT eats that kind of stuff alive. (“The Jayhawks are explosive, sure. But they still struggle against power teams, in particular on the road. Another game that paints inside the lines of the MOE, and another home underdog that I would not be surprised to win.”) This week should be far more up his alley The Rebels have had problems away from home against more talented teams (and even against not-so-talented teams or near-peer-adversaries). This one will probably be no different. The Jayhawks’ ground game in particular is a mismatch against UNLV, as the Rebels’ rushing efficiency D isn’t great: not per-play, per-drive, or explosiveness-allowed. In fact, despite the lopsided margins the Rebels have been posting, UNLV’s defense hasn’t been very efficient overall. And that simply won’t hold up against a borderline Top 25 major conference team on the road at night. The Rebels are explosive in their own right (or at least they have their moments), but I don’t think they’ll be able to match score-for-score, when KU is controlling the offensive LOS with their pace.
So this one seems closer to two scores than one. KU -9.43
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One We Love:
Kennesaw State +18.5 at San Jose State
The Spartans have looked great this year, particularly defensively. That’s not a surprise; they’ve traditionally fielded one of the Mountains better defenses. The offense seems to finally be on track again too. KSU is not a bad team at all — despite the fact they could and likely will only win 2-3 games this year. But, as we wrote last week of Sam Houston, the greatest impediment for transitional FCS-to-FBS teams is the offense. Always the offense. And the Owls are no different. In fact, it’s literally the worst offense in the country in 7 of 11 advanced stats, which makes this an especially bad road matchup on the west coast. And then you throw in SJSU’s ball-hawking, where the since the Owls are expected to also finish -1.75 in turnover margin? You get a game that would probably be a lot closer in 4-5 years.
SJSU with a solid three-score home win -20.65
Underdog With Bite
LSU -7 at South Carolina
Are we sure the right team is favored? LSU has lost its NT and its RB. Nussmeier can’t move the ball downfield. Adding insult to injury, the defense is as bad as ever — especially the secondary: The Tigers have forced just 1 TO vs. Nicholls and USC, and are giving up 73% completions. But at least they can’t run the ball either! Shane Beamer has also been great as a home underdog, while Kelly is just 2-4 ATS as a road favorite at LSU. The Gamecocks may nickel and dime them into oblivion. Ever seen two teams try to gum one another to death? You’ll get your chance Saturday.
USCe +4.84
Ginormous Spread Worth Your Attention
There aren’t many ginormous spreads, so we’ll take a three touchdown-plus game instead.
Arkansas State +22 at Michigan
The Wolverines have to get that offense fixed. Fortunately, the Red Wolves terrible defense comes calling. (Unfortunately, ASU also has an offense, and UM can’t really sleep on anyone these days.) Efficiency-wise, UM is still a Top 15 team…they’re just not a Top 10 team. And I suspect Texas is going to pants a lot of pretty good teams this year. A romp here won’t wash away the stank from Texas devouring them in the Big House, but neither can they screw around. So they won’t. ASU is a heavily penalized G5 team, that has lost the turnover battle against two scrubs, and now gets to go to Ann Arbor where Meat Chicken is licking their wounds and their chops? Yeah. I think I really like this one. Butch has been decent on the road ATS, but he is 1-3 in big number games at Arkansas State, including some absolutely horrendous beatings.
This looks like a decent play for a biggish number. UM -25.09, say 35-10?
Mortal Lock
UTEP +23 at Liberty
Last year, Liberty was a bit of a surprise — both on the scoreboard and in Vegas. We’ve been waiting for the Flames to turn it on this year. They are 0-2 ATS, which is uncharacteristic. Well, it seems as though the wait may be over. The UTEP Miners are in complete disarray. It’s a new team, a new coach, new schemes on both sides of the ball, and they have one of the nation’s worst ground defenses. They’ve have not been remotely competitive at any time this season outside of coin tosses. Suffice it to say, a Jamie Chadwell team is not one you want to face on the road with an undersized bad rushing defense, a turnover problem, and a significant talent deficit.
Liberty looks like it is poised to finally get on track. Flames -26.94, something like 41-13
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
Just five bucks a month, though with inflation, that shit is working out to about $3.13 a month for me these days. Womp. Womp.
Poll
Missouri finally plays a real team. Are they covering -16.5 at home vs. Boston College?
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)